ASG Blog
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Afghanistan Study Group Weekly Reader: $325 Million Dollars a Day in Afghanistan …
Published: August 11th, 2011
Yesterday Amanda Terkel at the Huffington Post reported the resignation of Herb Richardson, the acting Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan is in charge of “ferreting out waste, fraud and abuse in reconstruction projects”. This is the second individual to hold this post in a year. Those difficulties aside, a little nugget was buried in this article, that may have been missed by most. A democratic aid is quoted as saying “When we’re spending $325 million per day in Afghanistan, now is hardly the time to loosen the strings of accountability tied to each hard-earned American taxpayer dollar. …” That’s right $325 million per day in Afghanistan.
FROM ASG
8-10-11
“Extraordinary Sacrifices”: We don’t need to lose any more of our precious resources in Afghanistan
The Afghanistan Study Group by Matthew Hoh and Clarissa Griebel
For almost ten years the United States has been in Afghanistan. On Saturday, our forces there suffered the single largest loss of life in one day. Just a few weeks after the President’s announcement that a withdrawal of 30,000 troops would begin this year, 30 American troops were lost when Taliban forces shot down a Chinook transport helicopter. In addition, to U.S. casualties, which included Navy Seal Commandos, one civilian interpreter and seven Afghan commandos were also killed in the attack. What are we still doing in Afghanistan?ARTICLES
8-4-11
Lawmakers question CERP funds in Afghanistan
Army Times by Michelle Stein
As Congress hammers out new spending cuts, a special emergency fund for commanders in Afghanistan has remained largely out of the limelight. But Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and others have continually pressed for more oversight and accountability.8-6-11
World fails Afghanistan despite spending billions
Reuters by Michelle Nichols
The global community has failed to create a politically stable and economically viable Afghanistan despite pouring billions of dollars into the South Asian nation during a decade-long war against the Taliban, says the International Crisis Group. The Brussels-based think tank said the United States and its allies still lacked a coherent policy to strengthen Afghanistan ahead of a planned withdrawal of foreign combat troops from the unpopular war by the end of 2014.8-6-11
Copter Crash Highlights Fight In Eastern Afghanistan
NPR by NPR Staff and Wires
A U.S. military helicopter crashed early Saturday in eastern Afghanistan, killing 30 Americans in the deadliest incident for U.S. troops since the war began. Seven Afghan commandos were also killed. Sources told NPR the Taliban shot down the helicopter as it was on a special overnight mission targeting an insurgent compound in Wardak province.OPINION
8-6-11
Close to Kabul: Chinook Tragedy in the Tangi Valley
The Atlantic by Steve Clemons
30 Americans of whom 22 were Navy Seals as well as 7 Afghan troops and a translator were killed yesterday when Taliban fighters successfully downed a Chinook helicopter with a rocket launched grenade in the Tangi Valley of Wardak Province in Afghanistan.8-8-11
A New Tragedy and Old Issues in Afghanistan
The National Interest by Paul Pillar
The tragic loss of 30 U.S. service members and eight Afghans in the crash, apparently from enemy fire, of a Chinook helicopter in Afghanistan over the weekend elicits—as does any other prominent and deadly incident—attempts to draw larger lessons. The drawing is done from different angles, sometimes with an agenda attached. The Taliban, playing off the inclusion of Navy SEALs among the victims, will portray the shoot-down as a calculated reprisal for the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, rather than as a lucky shot by an insurgent armed with a rocket-propelled grenade.8-7-11
Why Are Good Men Still Dying in Afghanistan?
The Good Men Project by Tom Matlack
I had just finished the harrowing account of just how we got Bin Laden in the New Yorker– including a Navy Seal who tackled two people he had reason to believe had suicide bomb vests on to save the rest of his team–when I got the first report of our largest single day death toll in the wars that have dragged for near a decade now. The New York Times reports:8-9-11
Why the Surge in Afghanistan has failed
Afghanistan Headlines Examiner by Michael Hughes
A number of prominent security experts have concluded that President Barack Obama’s troop surge has not only fallen far short of its objectives, but has left Afghanistan in a more violent, corrupt and dependent state. -
“Extraordinary Sacrifices”: We don’t need to lose any more of our precious resources in Afghanistan.
Published: August 10th, 2011
Mathew Hoh – Director, Afghanistan Study Group
Clarissa F. Griebel – Afghanistan Study GroupFor almost ten years the United States has been in Afghanistan. On Saturday, our forces there suffered the single largest loss of life in one day. Just a few weeks after the President’s announcement that a withdrawal of 30,000 troops would begin this year, 30 American troops were lost when Taliban forces shot down a Chinook transport helicopter. In addition, to U.S. casualties, which included Navy Seal Commandos, one civilian interpreter and seven Afghan commandos were also killed in the attack. What are we still doing in Afghanistan?
We continue to make, in the words of President Obama, “extraordinary sacrifices”, in Afghanistan. Our national debt is at 14 trillion and change, the war costs us approximately 2 billion dollars a week, and we have lost 1727 lives with over 13,000 physically wounded.
And what of the additional costs for caring for our wounded troops? An unknown number of veterans suffer from traumatic brain injuries and post-traumatic stress disorder and countless military families have been torn apart. There are estimates that we will spend between 3.7 and 4.4 Trillion dollars on the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. All of this, for a country that has a GDP of 15 billion dollars, and whose people do not want us there.
In addition, according to the White House, there has not been an al-Qaeda threat from Afghanistan to the United States for seven or eight years. We are fighting the Taliban who according to Paul Pillar of The National Interest:
There is no end in sight to the violence in Afghanistan. In the past twenty-four hours another NATO helicopter has made a “hard landing” in southeastern Afghanistan. In the past month there have been several high profile assassinations in Afghanistan, including Kandahar’s Mayor Ghulam Haider Hamidi and half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s, Ahmed Wali Karzai. This year the civilian death toll in Afghanistan is at its’ highest since the United Nations began keeping track in 2007. Given the seemingly endless and escalating violence in Afghanistan it is time for American troops to come home. They are too valuable to be spent on a war that is not in our strategic interests in a country that does not threaten the American people.
The special operations commandos and air crew our country lost on Saturday are the finest warriors the world has ever known. They were men who readily gave their lives for their country without question or hesitation, as did the 255 other Americans who have been killed in Afghanistan this year. As a country, we need to have the courage and the honesty to say that the United States mission in Afghanistan is not worthy of those sacrifices. We don’t need to lose any more of our precious resources in Afghanistan.
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ASG Weekly Reader: A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned
Published: August 1st, 2011
The budget debate has captivated most of the country’s attention this past week. Despite the focus on fiscal responsibility, stories of corruption and waste continue to surface in relation to the Afghanistan War not only among Afghan institutions, but here at home. From insurance fraud to contractor negligence every day there are new revelations of chicanery in Afghanistan.
Also, of note this week is a new interactive info-graphic that ASG has developed, which highlights the opinions of politicians, media, and academics. Will the most ardent deficit hawks be the people most committed to leaving Afghanistan? You decide.
FROM ASG
8-1-11
Looking for a Way to Cut the Budget; How about Afghanistan? See Where Key Leaders Stand on the Afghanistan War
The Afghanistan Study Group developed an interactive infographic identifying where national opinion leaders – politicians, media and academics – stand on President Obama’s plan to remove troops from Afghanistan.ARTICLES
7-26-11
Afghanistan hits back over U.S. aid spending report
Reuters by Jonathon Burch
Afghanistan’s government hit back Tuesday over a U.S. watchdog report on aid spending in Afghanistan last week, saying several assertions in the report were wrong and that future audits needed to be “more balanced and accurate.”7-28-11
Cost of Treating Veterans Will Rise Long Past Wars
New York Times by James Dao
Though the withdrawal of American military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan will save the nation billions of dollars a year, another cost of war is projected to continue rising for decades to come: caring for the veterans.Afghanistan, the Taliban, and the US deficit
The Christian Science Monitor by Dan Murphy
Afghanistan Ambassador Ryan Crocker has jumped from his breeze of a confirmation hearing in the US into the fat end of the fire this week. The new ambassador has arrived in a country reeling from a string of assassinations of government officials and worried about what the future may hold, as the US continues to contract its fighting presence across the country.Senators Spending More On Travel Despite Budget Cuts
wsbtv.com
Just after the eighth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan, Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss traveled there to visit metro-area troops on the front lines and share Thanksgiving dinner. Documents show one of several overseas trips Chambliss has made since early 2009. The costs of the trips totals more than $38,000.
US accuses Iran of ‘secret deal’ with al-Qaeda
The Telegraph by Barney Henderson
The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on six men accused of operating the terror network. Iran-based Ezedine Abdel Aziz Khalil, aka Yasin al-Sura, was named as a “senior al-Qaeda facilitator” who has operated from inside Iran since 2005 “under an agreement between al-Qaeda and the Iranian government”.7-29-11
Problems abound in US government insurance program
The Associated Press by Matt Volz
Lax oversight of the U.S. government’s workers’ compensation insurance program for its contractors and subcontractors in Afghanistan has resulted in the loss of tens of millions of dollars and workers going without the required insurance in often hazardous conditions, an audit released Thursday found.7-31-11
Afghan official: Kabul Bank scam involved up to 40
Associated Press by Deb Riechmann
As many as 40 people were allegedly involved in scams to bilk hundreds of millions of dollars from the Kabul Bank, and nearly half the cases will be sent to the Afghan court system next week, a top Afghan prosecutor said Sunday.8-1-11
Afghanistan: Kandahar caught in the crosshairs
Global Post by Erin Cunningham
Kandahar, the beating, political heart of the Afghan south and bastion of Taliban strength, is a city perpetually on the brink.
OPINION7-25-11
The costly errors of America’s wars
guardian.co.uk by Michael Shank
This month, as the Pentagon and the CIA countenance a changing of the guard – welcoming Defence Secretary Leon Panetta and CIA Director David Petraeus, respectively – it is worth pressing pause on national security strategy before our modus operandi becomes any more politically disconcerting, morally disheartening and financially devastating. With Washington now waging war, in some form, in six Muslim countries – Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia and Yemen – there are several trends now prevalent in our foreign policy-making that must be reformed posthaste.7-26-11
Obama Blunders Defining Real Causes of Debt?
The Atlantic by Steve Clemons
Paul Krugman seems to have laid the track for Obama’s argument in an essay in May of this year arguing that there were three drivers that undermined America’s economic solvency thus wiping out the budget surplus of 2000. The unpaid for wars. The ‘temporary’ Bush tax cuts for the rich. And the subprime-triggered global financial crisis and recession.
Everything About the War in Afghanistan In a Single Sentence
Registan.net by Joshua Foust
Really, what else can you say, aside from how on earth can our leaders continue to insist that they’re winning in Afghanistan when their troops still get into vicious 2-day firefights in a province they’ve had soldiers in for nine years? -
Looking for a Way to Cut the Budget; How about Afghanistan? See Where Key Leaders Stand on the Afghanistan War
Published: August 1st, 2011
The Afghanistan Study Group developed an interactive infographic identifying where national opinion leaders – politicians, media and academics – stand on President Obama’s plan to remove troops from Afghanistan.
Featuring pundits, media, elected leaders, and academics, the infographic highlights each opinionator’s stance on troop drawdown, as well as a quote articulating his/her point of view. Views are arranged in concentric ellipses, beginning in the center of the circle with those who support escalating the number of troops in Afghanistan and ending with those who support total withdrawal. Those agreeing with President Obama’s plan are placed in the middle.
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ASG Weekly Reader – Military Contracting and the Afghanistan War: “it’s okay to pay the enemy because then we have better snacks”
Published: July 25th, 2011
Amid the repercussions of high profile assassinations in Afghanistan, the U.S. continues to dump billions of dollars into Afghanistan without oversight. Hamid Karzai continues to block anti-money laundering efforts, while a new study will be released by Congress in the next few weeks, which details Afghanistan and Iraq military contracting waste to the tune of $34 billion. Meanwhile, over the weekend, Karen DeYoung reported that Congress found “documented, credible evidence . . . of involvement in a criminal enterprise or support for the enemy” by U.S. contracted trucking firms in Afghanistan. In other words the U.S. is funding both sides of the Afghanistan War. Exacerbating the situation even further are, Jennifer Rubin, and others, who erroneously attribute this week’s tragedy in Norway to al-Qaeda in order to justify higher defense spending and unlimited war. Read her opinion piece from the Washington Post here and let us know if you don’t see the correlation between fear mongering and out of control war spending.
FROM ASG
7-20-11
Change course in Afghanistan
Worcester Telegram & Gazette by Rep. Jim McGovern and Matthew Hoh
A few weeks ago, President Obama outlined his strategy for Afghanistan, which included a drawdown of 10,000 troops by the end of this year and an additional 23,000 by the end of next year. This is insufficient, and we fear that it means more of the same for the next 18 months. It would mean the same strategy with the same costs and, sad to say, even more casualties. It would mean more American soldiers losing their lives in support of an Afghan government that is terribly corrupt and incompetent.ARTICLES
7-20-11
Afghanistan Is Hampering US Efforts To Help Improve AML In The Country
Wall Street Journal by Samuel Rubenfeld
Limited and inconsistent cooperation from Afghanistan is hurting U.S. efforts to safeguard the flow of cash to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing, an audit released Wednesday found. The Office of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said in its audit (pdf) that Afghanistan’s inconsistent cooperation has led to the pursuit of only four of 21 cases forwarded for prosecution by its financial intelligence agency, the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Center of Afghanistan, or FinTRACA.Drug trade menaces Afghanistan despite progress: U.S.
Reuters by Paul Eckert
The United States has made headway in building up Afghanistan’s counternarcotics forces, but the war-torn country needs more international help to hold onto those fragile gains, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.7-20-11
Audit: Karzai blocks U.S. anti-money laundering effort
by Jennifer Epstein
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has blocked efforts by U.S. officials to safeguard money entering his country’s economy, and making it difficult for the United States to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, a new report finds.7-21-11
Pakistan, Afghanistan must end border incursions
Reuters India by Myra McDonald
Pakistan and Afghanistan must redouble efforts to end fighting along their border to prevent this jeopardising an improvement in relations, Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said on Thursday. In an interview with Reuters, Gilani said he hoped India could “play a good role” in Afghanistan, as warming ties between Islamabad and New Delhi reduce the deep mistrust which has seen the two countries battling for influence there.
No Longer ‘Wine And Roses’ For Defense Spending
NPR by JJ Southerland
One of the big-ticket items in any budget deal will have to be the defense budget. The latest budget request calls for spending about $700 billion on defense next year, the highest level since World War II. President Obama has already proposed hundreds of billions of dollars in defense cuts, and proposals by the Senate’s “Gang of Six” call for hundreds of billions more over the next decade.
7-22-11
The Taliban’s Likely Negotiator With The U.S.
by Quil Lawrence
After months of rumors, most observers in Kabul now believe that American officials have met with a Taliban envoy face to face. The most likely interlocutor is Tayyeb Agha, the head of the Taliban political committee and one of a handful of people in the world said to have direct contact with Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban.7-23-11
U.S. wastes $34 billion in Afghan and Iraq contracting
Reuters by Phil Stewart
The United States has wasted some $34 billion on service contracts with the private sector in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a study being finalized for Congress.
The findings by a bipartisan congressional commission were confirmed to Reuters by a person familiar with the draft of the study, which is due to be completed in coming weeks.7-24-11
U.S. trucking funds reach Taliban, military-led investigation concludes
The Washington Post by Karen DeYoung
A year-long military-led investigation has concluded that U.S. taxpayer money has been indirectly funneled to the Taliban under a $2.16 billion transportation contract that the United States has funded in part to promote Afghan businesses.OPINION
7-20-11
Making Sense of the Afghan Peace Dividend
Council on Foreign Relations
The debate raging on Capitol Hill over how to avoid fiscal calamity has collided with the discussion about the U.S. troop drawdown in Afghanistan. Around Washington, policymakers argue (Nation) that scaling back America’s commitments abroad will allow the country to focus on pressing priorities at home. President Barack Obama also linked the two.7-21-11
Biden’s Burden: Last One Standing in Afghanistan Policy Wars
The Atlantic by Steve Clemons
Now that General David Petraeus has mothballed his uniforms, turned the ISAF command in Afghanistan over to General John Allen, and taken Leon Panetta’s chair at the CIA, the next to last big name who fought for primacy in DC’s Afghanistan policy wars is, for the most part, off to other pastures.7-23-11
The Washington Post Owes the World an Apology for This Item on the Oslo Attacks
The Progressive Realist by James Fallows
Read it and weep. On the Post’s site Jennifer Rubin first quotes the Weekly Standard, in a rushed item about the Norway horror … -
ASG Weekly Reader: The Drawdown Begins
Published: July 21st, 2011
The drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan has begun. Over the past week the first group of American soldiers have departed and they will not be replaced by a fresh unit. Although, the House may not have gotten the memo, as last week they voted to increase the military budget by $17 billion for a grand total of $649 billion dollars. The Department of Defense continues to be immune from budget cuts as the rest of the country tries to figure out how to do more with less. There is some good news coming out of Afghanistan, however, amid the escalating violence on the boarders and high profile political assassinations in the interior; the snow leopards appear to be flourishing.
FROM ASG
U.S. Adventures in Afghanistan and Pakistan: “It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time”
Afghanistan Study Group by Edward Kenney
Sometimes what seems like good policy at first can turn out to be a bad idea with the benefit of hindsight. The support for Mujahidin leaders such as Hekmatyar and Haqqani seemed like a great idea in the 1980s when they were fighting the Soviets. Now that these figures make up key parts of the Afghan insurgency…not so much.ARTICLES
7-8-11
House boosts military budget in time of austerity
msnbc.com by Donna Cassata
On a 336-87 vote Friday, the Republican-controlled House overwhelmingly backed a $649 billion defense spending bill that boosts the Defense Department budget by $17 billion. The strong bipartisan embrace of the measure came as White House and congressional negotiators face an Aug. 2 deadline on agreeing to trillions of dollars in federal spending cuts and raising the borrowing limit so the U.S. does not default on debt payments.7-9-11
Porous and Violent, Afghan-Tajik Border Is a Worry for the U.S.
New York Times by Michael Schwirtz
Such kidnappings, along with murders, armed clashes and other violence, have become persistent features of life along Tajikistan’s extensive border with Afghanistan. A largely unprotected expanse of severe peaks and dusty plains, the border is practically all that separates the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and beyond from the chaos of one of the world’s most war-ravaged countries. Securing it and the smaller borders with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has taken on greater urgency as American forces prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan.7-11-11
Pakistan’s rocket fire into Afghanistan alarms locals, US forces
The Christian Science Monitor
While Afghan and US officials are in talks with Pakistan to end the strikes on militants, US soldiers experiencing the direct effects of the artillery fire are caught in an uncomfortable middle ground. Commanders say the longer it takes to find a solution, the greater the risk of fueling the insurgency and alienating locals from the Afghan government.7-12-11
Who Killed Ahmed Wali Karzai?
Foreign Policy by Matthiew Aikins
The manner of Ahmed Wali’s death is all the more striking considering that the last major figure to be assassinated in Kandahar, Police Chief Khan Mohammed Mujahed, was killed by own his bodyguard-turned-suicide-bomber in April. In May, one of the most important anti-Taliban commanders in northern Afghanistan, Gen. Daud Daud, was assassinated by a bomb planted in the Takhar’s governor’s office; and last October, Engineer Omar, governor of Kunduz, was blown up by a bomb planted in the floor of the mosque where he habitually prayed.7-13-11
Kandahar: Afghanistan’s turbulent province
BBC News
It has often been said that whoever controls Kandahar controls Afghanistan. During the past five years, the province has seen heavy fighting between Nato and the Taliban – most of the 30,000 troops deployed by US President Barack Obama in his surge of 2009 have been stationed there.7-14-11
Afghanistan’s civilians in the crosshairs
Foreign Policy by Erica Gaston
The United Nations semi-annual protection of civilians report released Thursday is a chilling rebuttal to illusions that Afghanistan is moving toward greater stability. With nearly 3,600 killed and injured – the highest civilian casualty rate since the war began – the statistics are a grim reality check to over-optimistic reports by international military and civilian leaders that their strategy is successfully disrupting insurgent activities.7-15-11
Mullah Omar, headscarves and bizarre Afghan peace talks
Reuters by Jonathon Burch
Homa Sultani, a former rights activist and now an MP from Ghazni, a volatile province southwest of Kabul, said she had met the reclusive Omar some 150 km (90 miles) from the capital and that they had wept together after deliberating the country’s plight.First US troops leave Afghanistan as drawdown begins
AFP by Claire Truscott
The first American soldiers of about 10,000 due to leave Afghanistan this year have flown home, military officials said Friday, kicking off a gradual drawdown due to be completed in 2014. US President Barack Obama in June announced that 33,000 American troops would leave Afghanistan by the end of next summer, leaving behind 65,000 and effectively ending a military surge ordered into the country late 2009.
7-17-11
Gunmen kill adviser to Afghan president in another strike at leader’s inner circle
The Washington Post by AFP
Gunmen strapped with explosives killed a close adviser to President Hamid Karzai and a member of parliament on Sunday in another insurgent strike against the Afghan leader’s inner circle. Jan Mohammed Khan was an adviser to Karzai on tribal issues and was close to the president, a fellow Pashtun.OPINION
7-12-11
Ahmed Wali Karzai Assassinated
The Atlantic by Steve Clemons
Watching on a long flight the other day the classic 1966 Sergio Leone spaghetti Western The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly I couldn’t help but think that Afghanistan would make a great backdrop for a remake of the Clint Eastwood classic. I’m not sure whether Kandahar region ‘super governor’ Ahmed Wali Karzai would have been cast as “The Bad” or “The Ugly”, but the half brother of Afghanistan’s President — shot dead today by a family bodyguard — was no force of noble spirit.7-14-11
The American Fantasy of Irreversible Victory
The National interest by Paul Pillar
Living in a peculiarly powerful and successful republic makes it easier to believe that the nation really can achieve absolute, irreversible victories. Sure, the United States has had failures, including some really big ones such as the Vietnam War. But even that costly failure, given the passage of time and of generations and the attitudinal balm of a splendid victory such as Operation Desert Storm—the reversal in 1991 of the Iraqi seizure of Kuwait—has not prevented restoration of hubristic optimism about what the United States can use its power to accomplish. One of the reactions to Desert Storm—specifically, the neoconservative reaction—featured once again the idea that accomplishment of a limited military aim is not enough and that the United States should go for the gold.7-17-11
Fareed’s Take: Deal making needed in Afghanistan
CNN by Fareed Zakaria
This week Ahmed Wali Karzai was gunned down by one of his bodyguards – a close family associate. Ahmed was President Hamid Karzai’s half brother and ran the crucial southern provinces of Afghanistan for Karzai. His death has properly been described as a huge setback for Karzai and for the international coalition that is trying to support the Karzai government in Kabul. -
U.S. Adventures in Afghanistan and Pakistan: “It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time”
Published: July 14th, 2011
Edward Kenney Afghanistan Study Group
Sometimes what seems like good policy at first can turn out to be a bad idea with the benefit of hindsight. The support for Mujahidin leaders such as Hekmatyar and Haqqani seemed like a great idea in the 1980s when they were fighting the Soviets. Now that these figures make up key parts of the Afghan insurgency…not so much.
Or to take another example: the death of Osama bin Laden. There is no question that this raid was worth it. It eliminated the founder and leader of al Qaeda and potentially dealt a crippling blow to the international terrorist group, but few could have predicted the extent or speed to which U.S.-Pakistani relations have deteriorated in the wake of the operation. Mere days after the bin Laden raid, Pakistan had leaked the name of the CIA station chief and had arrested the Pakistani citizens who assisted the CIA in scouting the Abbottabad compound. Now even the doctor who helped collect bin Laden’s DNA samples has been arrested.
The U.S. had hoped that the embarrassment of bin Laden hiding out in the same vicinity as a major military academy would prod Pakistan into taking greater action against militant strongholds in the FATA region. Well…it hasn’t quite turned out that way. A week after a “joke” (Pulitzer worthy?) article published in the satirical Onion quoted ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha telling insurgents the exact place and time for a joint U.S. operation, a Karen DeYoung report, (in the no-joke Washington Post), strongly suggested that Islamic militants had been tipped off about a IED factory raid by elements in the Pakistani military.
Meanwhile Pakistani army chief Ashfak Parvez Kayani has had to fend off an insurgency from within his own ranks due to his “cozy relationship with the United States.” Kayani is easily the most pro-American soldier in the Pakistani high command and the only one with training in the United States.
So far the Pakistanis have resisted U.S. demands that it move into North Waziristan; but this doesn’t mean Pakistan is laying low. In an ironic twist, Islamic militants are now using Eastern Afghanistan (particularly Kunar and Nangarhar) to stage attacks against Pakistan, and the Pakistani military has retaliated with over 700 rockets into Afghanistan. The U.S. had no problem pushing Pakistan to go after militants in the FATA, but as soon as the army launched an attack into Afghan territory, the U.S. had to deal with the political repercussions. Guess what? Afghan civilians really don’t like the Pakistanis shooting at them, particularly when civilians are accidentally killed. Is there a lesson here? Hint: The Pakistanis may have similar feelings about some of our missile strikes in Pakistan.
Now the U.S. is going to try a different approach; we are going to cut off $800 million in military aid to Pakistan [1]. The Pakistani response has been both quick and predictable. A hefty chunk of these funds ($300 million or so) went to forces on the Af-Pak border conducting counterterrorism operations. The Pakistani Defense Minister has now threatened to remove these critical troops. Beyond these foreseeable consequences, the future of Pakistani-U.S. relations remains very much uncertain and their implications for vital U.S. national interests remain in doubt.
Unforeseen consequences are also playing a role in the other big news item of the day: the death of Ahmad Wali Karzai (AWK), the controversial provincial council chief and half brother to President Hamid Karzai. AWK was called the “most powerful in Kandahar” and likely candidate to replace Tooryalai Wesa the current governor. Ahmad Wali was also considered one of the largest drug runners in Afghanistan and allegedly helped stuff the ballot boxes in the tumultuous 2009 presidential elections. Indeed, he epitomized everything that’s wrong with Afghan governance-corruption, criminality and political exclusion. Will things improve now that he has been eliminated? As controversial a figure as AWK was, he was also strong enough to at least attempt to rule the province. It’s not as if representative democracy will magically appear in Kandahar with his passing. More likely a smaller weaker AWK type will replace him, and the violence will continue. However, the true consequences of Ahmad Wali Karzai’s death will not be known for some time to come.
[1] The final straw apparently was Pakistan’s decision to expel 100 trainers and other military personnel last week. -
ASG Weekly Reader: The Bedrock of Our National Defense
Published: July 8th, 2011
President Obama continues to receive pressure from the left to increase the pace of the Afghanistan draw-down, but where are the fiscal conservatives in Congress? Our land war in Asia has already cost us upwards of 3.2 trillion. Unfortunately, we continue to hear about how the is an “unnecessary risk”, and the recent attack on The Intercontinental in Kabul may bolster this argument. However, after ten years when will be the right time for us to leave? The two billion per week that we spend in Afghanistan could be used here to fund schools, build roads, and invest in small businesses. We need to fix our own economy not waste more money in Afghanistan. After all, the bedrock of our national defense is a strong economy.
FROM ASG
7-6-11
9/11 and One Measure of bin Laden’s Success
the Atlantic by Steve Clemons
The 10th Anniversary of 9/11 will be upon us soon – and it got me to thinking what the now dead Osama bin Laden was able to achieve in terms of achieving one of his goals – getting the US to spend a lot of treasure on trying to feel more safe in an unsafe world.7-4-11
Money, War & 2012
the Atlantic by Steve Clemons and ThomsonReuters Global Editor-at-Large Chrystia Freeland
Steve Clemons and Chrystia Freeland discuss the debt limit, jobs and economic policies, and the President’s drawdown of troops in Afghanistan.7-8-11
Historical Counterinsurgency and Afghanistan
The Afghanistan Study Group by Edward Kenney
Two papers published recently compare historical counterinsurgency experiences to the situation in Afghanistan. The first, authored by Christopher Paul and published by RAND Corporation compares Afghanistan to 30 historical counterinsurgencies over the last thirty years. The second, by Douglas Ollivant and published by the New America Foundation looks at lessons learned from the Iraqi surge.ARTICLES
7-3-11
Border strife in Afghanistan shows wider tensions
The Examiner by Rahim Faiez
Afghan government officials have accused Pakistan of launching more than 761 rockets over the border into Kunar province since May and causing the deaths of at least 40 people and injuring 51. Pakistan has denied hitting Afghanistan intentionally, but acknowledged its military has been targeting Islamic militants to halt cross-border raids and that some rockets may have strayed off course.7-4-11
US special forces to hit Afghanistan
The Australian by Michael Evans
A mini-surge of Navy Seals, Army ”Green Beret” Rangers and other special units is being drafted from across the world, including Iraq and the Philippines, to ensure that there is enough combat power to expand covert raids as America withdraws 33,000 troops over the next 15 months7-5-11
5,800 Attacks Are Just The Beginning After Petraeus’ Year-Long Air War
by Noah Shachtman and Spencer Ackerman
When Gen. David Petraeus took command of the Afghan war effort a year ago, his officers insisted that there was no way he’d go back to the bad old days of bombing the country from the sky. This was a counterinsurgency campaign, they said; winning over the population was way more important than nailing any target. Airstrikes would be solely a “tactic of last resort,” as one general told Danger Room, used only if ground troops “cannot withdraw.”7-6-11
Afghanistan Commander IDs 3 Units to Be Part of Drawdown This Month
abc this week by Luis Martinez
The No. 2 commander in Afghanistan identified three units that will be part of the troop drawdowns that are to begin this month. The units comprise the first elements of the drawdown of 30,000 of American troops in Afghanistan to be completed next September.7-7-11
Democrats challenge Obama’s Afghan withdrawal plan
Reuters by David Alexander
Democratic lawmakers fed up with the lingering war in Afghanistan launched a new challenge to President Barack Obama’s plan for a measured U.S. troop withdrawal over the next year as they resumed debate on Wednesday on a $649 billion defense spending bill.OPINION
7/4/11
Let’s Not Linger in Afghanistan
New York Times by Jeff Merkley, Rand Paul and Tom Udall
We commend the president for sticking to the July date he had outlined for beginning the withdrawal. However, his plan would not remove all regular combat troops until 2014. We believe the United States is capable of achieving this goal by the end of 2012. America would be more secure and stronger economically if we recognized that we have largely achieved our objectives in Afghanistan and moved aggressively to bring our troops and tax dollars home.7-6-11
Government in Afghanistan Nears Collapse
The Nation by Robert Dreyfuss
In case you haven’t been following the news: last year’s parliamentary election was so chaotic and flawed that it resulted in the near-total disenfranchisement of Afghanistan’s Pashtun ethnic minority, which makes up a healthy 40 percent of the population. Many Pashtuns either didn’t vote, because of sympathy or support for the Taliban and dislike of the Afghan government, or couldn’t vote, because of Taliban threats and violence. As a result, in some provinces in the south and east where Pashtuns dominate, not a single Pashtun was elected to parliament. -
Historical Counterinsurgency and Afghanistan
Published: July 7th, 2011
Edward Kenney Afghanistan Study Group
Two papers published recently compare historical counterinsurgency experiences to the situation in Afghanistan. The first, authored by Christopher Paul and published by RAND Corporation compares Afghanistan to 30 historical counterinsurgencies over the last thirty years. The second, by Douglas Ollivant and published by the New America Foundation looks at lessons learned from the Iraqi surge.
Beginning with the Iraq Paper, Ollivant looks at the success of the surge and concludes that the military aspect of the surge is only a limited factor in the decrease in violence. A big part of the explanation, according to is the so-called Sunni Awakening, but here Ollivant has a refreshing—although not entirely convincing argument.
“The fundamental truth of the Iraqi settlement is that the sectarian civil war ended—and the Sunni lost”
To Ollivant, the Sunni Awakening was not the rejection of al Qaeda, but rather the strategic calculation of the weaker side.
“[They] realized that only the United States had the “wasta”[1], to intervene for them with the central government and secure their minority interests…”
When you think about it, this explanation doesn’t make sense. Why on earth did the Sunni militias trust the U.S. to act in their favor in Iraqi parliament? Turning on al Qaeda was clearly a massive gamble—they could have found themselves entirely isolated—but this decision paid off in the end.
Applying this same scenario to Afghanistan, the Taliban find themselves in similar situation to the Sunnis circa 2007: They are both unpopular and (as Ambassadors Pickering and Brahimi point out in chapter 1 of their report) lack a plausible path to power. They could “switch sides” and gamble that the U.S. would then protect some of their interests in Afghanistan, but they haven’t. Why hasn’t a “Taliban Awakening” occurred? Well, you can look to either differences in practices or differences in conditions. Ollivant looks at differences in practices, but the only real difference he can come up with is the President’s use of timetables along with the surge in troops. This to my mind is not a compelling explanation. For one thing, it’s hard to imagine presidential words carrying this much weight in the eyes of insurgents, and anecdotal evidence suggests that the Taliban are mostly concerned that we won’t leave when we say we will, not that the U.S. is commitment-phobic as Ollivant’s theory implies.
The great weakness in Ollivant’s paper is that he underestimates important differences between conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan. One key difference I would examine is the political structure of the insurgent groups. As I have already noted, the decision to switch sides in Iraq was a major gamble. This required a high level of legitimacy among the tribal sheiks. I would wager, a careful examination of the Taliban would conclude that the Taliban leadership do not have this same level of legitimacy among their followers .
The RAND Paper covers many more insurgencies and is arguably more ambitious. Identifying twelve COIN factors and practices, they place Afghanistan’s score in between success and failure with an overall score of 3.5. Looking deeper at the Rand numbers the picture is less optimistic. According to this report Afghanistan lacks three fundamental conditions for success: security, government legitimacy and insurgent support networks.
While I certainly agree with many of the conclusions, the paper has a significant weakness in that they lump together conditions and practices. As the Iraq example hopefully illustrated, conditions on the ground should and often do determine “best practices”. There is not a one-size fits all approach to defeating a counter insurgency. To their credit, the experts sort of recognize this dilemma:
To maximize effectiveness in the area of strategic communication, COIN forces will not only need to firmly establish the presence of more strategic communication—related factors but, as noted earlier, they would also benefit from improving the underlying conditions that inform the themes and messages communicated—namely, government legitimacy and security.
Translation: You can be the best car-salesman in the world, but if that automobile is a piece of junk, I ain’t buying. The problem is not “strategic communication” (military-speak for PR); the security situation is deteriorating in much of Afghanistan.
To put it another way, conditions are much determinative of success or failure than we like to admit.
[1] Arabic translated by Ollivant to mean clout or influence -
Reconciling the Afghan Analyst Network
Published: July 2nd, 2011
Edward Kenney Afghanistan Study Group
How confident should we be that the supposed reconciliation talks are going to succeed? Why don’t we check with the folks from the Afghan Analysts Network?
Thomas Ruttig is not too optimistic:
It is even not clear whether every actor involved in the [Taliban peace talks] really wants peace: The US military continues to try crushing the Taliban militarily and possibly to avoid substantial talks. The Taliban have started their own kill campaign of key Afghan security forces leaders, particularly of Northern provenience.
This analysis comes after a recent Karzai speech in which the president declared ongoing peace talks for the first time between the U.S. and Taliban, a move that was widely portrayed positively in western media. In Afghanistan, as Ruttig’s observations epitomize, things are seldom what they seem: Karzai’s emphasis on American led negotiations directly contradicts the State Department’s repeated assurances that any peace deal will be Afghan led. Then there is a little matter of the Tayyab Agha talks in Berlin, which were allegedly leaked to journalists from the presidential palace.
Ruttig concludes: Every day on which they do not seriously work towards genuine and inclusive talks, with the Taliban and those who oppose them, armed or not, diminishes the chances for a peaceful solution.
Compared to Ruttig, Ahmad Shuja, a guest blogger for the Afghan Analysts Network, is slightly more optimistic. Shuja has been following former Northern Alliance intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh, who has been one of the most vocal opponents of a negotiated settlement with the Taliban, at one point going so far as to lead protests against prospective peace talks. Shuja sees Saleh changing his tune in a recent op-ed, and opening the door a crack for prospective talks:
In this new language, Saleh is indicating a shift from his previous position of adamantly opposing any kind of talks with the Taliban… Saleh has been one of the leaders of a movement against talks with the Taliban and is thought to have lost his job as NDS chief because of a disagreement on this subject with President Karzai.
This new rhetoric is an improvement, albeit a marginal one. Many of Saleh’s demands seem a little far fetched, such as his insistence that the Taliban disarm or pushing for investigations into human rights abuses over the past twenty years (a timeframe which includes the Afghan Civil War in the 1990s). Sounds like a good idea, except that virtually all of the perpetrators remain in key positions of power. I’m not sure that either the Afghan government or the Taliban will ever embrace Saleh’s views.
But not to worry, if reconciliation doesn’t work out, at least we still have a successful “reintegration program” to fall back on. Just listen to this glowing endorsement from a recently reintegrated Taliban fighter:
“In the last five months I have received none of what they promised me: no salary, no good accommodations. Those who are fighting now say: ‘Your men are jobless. What have you achieved?’ ”
God save us.
I’ll leave former British Ambassador Sherard Cowper- Coles with the last word on reconciliation from his brilliant interview with LA Times: When asked whether a reduction of forces will improve chances at a peace deal, here was the Ambassador’s response:
It’s a question of showing the Taliban you’re serious about wanting an honorable peace for all the internal parties to the Afghan conflict [and] also all the regional parties…. The Taliban know that they’re not going to win total victory; they know they’re never again going to rule the whole of Afghanistan.”
Right now, there is a surplus of rhetoric (most of it self-serving crazy talk) and a deficit of trust. As Ambassador Cowper-Coles correctly illustrates, for any peace deal to have a remote chance of success, this dynamic has to change.
