ASG Weekly Reader: Stuck in the Middle with You
Noteworthy developments in Afghanistan and the United States’ prosecution of our war there have included: Central Bank Gov. Abdul Qadir Fitrat’s flight to the US and a subsequent request by Afghan authorities for his extradition in connection with the Kabul Bank’s fraudulent loans, a terror attack on The Intercontinental Hotel, located in Kabul by Taliban suicide bombers on Tuesday, and here in the U.S. the shuffling of American intelligence and military officials is nearly complete.
General Petraeus moved to the CIA with Lt. Gen. John Allen taking over as the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Robert Gates retired, and Leon Panetta became the Secretary of Defense this morning. This personnel shift is indicative of a larger shift in policy. The White House is leaning towards a strategy that targets Al Qaeda and seeks to reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan. This could be an opportunity for the regional players to take a stronger role in developing peace in Afghanistan (Here’s looking at you China).
Both sides of the aisle are unhappy with the President’s plan. However, the American public at large supports the President’s plan. Amidst the shouts and murmurs of D.C. punditry, the American people are indicating they are in favor of the drawdown, and a significant portion think it should happen more quickly. They are right. It should. Because “a little bit of common sense” tells us we need the money we are spending in Afghanistan, here. Unfortunately, we may be staying in Afghanistan longer than we would like.
FROM ASG
6-28-11
US Forces in Afghanistan: Too Big to Succeed
The Atlantic by Steve Clemons
Even General David Petraeus has said that his troop recommendations to the President were not based on an assessment of America’s overall strategic needs and position — but were focused exclusively on the needs of the Afghanistan/Pakistan environment. In other words, America’s most famous and arguably successful general, a celebrity now in his own right, has been advocating that his venture be the Moby Dick of concern in America’s national security portfolio — rather than a more balanced venture weighed against other problems with which the US is strapped.
6-29-11
Pro & Con: Should U.S. quicken drawdown of troops in Afghanistan?
ajc.com by Matthew Hoh, Gordon R. Sullivan and James M. Dubik
Obama announced his first surge of 20,000 troops in spring 2009. Pushing American forces well above the 50,000 mark and reinforcing a counterinsurgency strategy, he escalated a war in a country entering its fourth decade of continuous conflict.
6-30-11
Afghan Financial Death Match: IMF versus Central Bank
Edward Kenney Afghanistan Study Group
Afghan growth rates have totaled 8.2% in 2010 and 20.9% in 2009, but these impressive numbers are likely the result of foreign aid and war spending representing up to 97% of the economy. Crucially, other macroeconomic factors have been far less promising. Unemployment is possibly as high as 35%, meanwhile inflation, thanks in part to a massive influx of foreign cash, was at 13.3% in 2009, one of the highest rates in the world.
ARTICLES
6-23-11
Sen. Manchin on Afghanistan: We Need “A Little Bit of Common Sense”
REAL Clear Politics by Sen. Manchin
Senator Joe Manchin: Let me just first say I have the utmost respect for Sen. McCain, the sacrifices that he has made, the service that he has given to our country. And he’s right, I don’t have the experience he’s had. What I do have, like most West Virginians, is a little bit of common sense. And enough’s enough.
6-24-11
War Savings Dividend for U.S. ‘Nation-Building’ Years Away, Analysts Say
Bloomberg by Margaret Talev and Mike Dorning
Any peace dividend from bringing U.S. troops home from Afghanistan likely will take years, not months, to make a dent in the federal budget, analysts said. [Obama’s] plan could save as little as $7 billion in fiscal year 2012, said Travis Sharp, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a defense-oriented policy institute in Washington. Sharp said he based his analysis on data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
6-25-11
Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan to combat terrorism
AFP by Farhad Pouladi
Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan agreed on Saturday to jointly fight militancy as they attended a counter-terrorism summit overshadowed by an Afghan hospital bombing that killed at least 20 people….”All sides stressed their commitment to efforts aimed at eliminating extremism, militancy, terrorism, as well as rejecting foreign interference, which is in blatant opposition to the spirit of Islam, the peaceful cultural traditions of the region and its peoples’ interests,” the statement said.
6-27-11
China Slams U.S. war in Middle East, Afghanistan; calls for caution in Libya
International Business Times
“Foreign troops may be able to win war in a place, but they can hardly win peace. Hard lessons have been learned from what has happened in the Middle East and Afghanistan,” Wen told the Associated Press at a press conference with the British prime minister.
Legacy of Mental Health Problems from Iraq and Afghanistan Wars Will Be Long-Lived
Scientific American by John Matson
As Operation Enduring Freedom, the war on terror in Afghanistan, winds down and some 33,000 U.S. servicemen and servicewomen return from overseas in the next year, a plan announced by President Obama on June 22, the psychological issues that veterans face back home are likely to increase.
6-28-11
US message in drone strikes: If Pakistan doesn’t take on Taliban, we will
The Christian Science Monitor
The Obama administration has stepped up drone strikes inside Pakistan over the past year – in particular in the North Waziristan region abutting Afghanistan in recent months. Pakistani officials have called publicly for the strikes to cease, insisting they alienate the general population.
6-29-11
Poll: Four in 5 approve of Obama’s plan for Afghanistan drawdown
CBS News by Lucy Madison
About four in 5 Americans approve of President Obama’s plan to bring troops home from Afghanistan and more than half would approve an even bigger withdrawal, a new CBS News/New York Times Poll finds.
The true cost of the war on terror: $3.7trillion and counting… and up to 258,000 lives
Mail Online by Daily Mail Reporter
The cost of U.S. military action in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan will run to at least $3.7trillion, a study has revealed today. The staggering figure could reach as high as $4.4trillion, with the deaths of up to 258,000 people, according to research by Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies.
7-4-11
Endgame
New Yorker by Dexter Filkins
In the ten years since American soldiers first landed in Afghanistan, their official purpose has oscillated between building and destroying. The Americans initially went in to defeat Al Qaeda, whose soldiers had attacked the United States, and to disperse the Taliban clerics who had given the terrorist group a home. Over time, the Pentagon’s focus shifted toward Afghanistan itself—toward helping its people rebuild their society, which has been battered by war and upheaval since the late nineteen-seventies. In strategic terms, the U.S. has swung between counter-insurgency and counterterrorism. Or, put another way, between enlightened self-interest and a more naked kind.
OPINION
6-27-11
The Mythical Connection between Terrorism and Failed States
The National Interest by Christopher Preble
That storyline conveniently ignores the fact that the president’s decision, if fully implemented, will still leave more than 60,000 troops in Afghanistan. Depending upon the pace of the drawdown after next summer, there will certainly be more troops in Afghanistan (I predict that there will be nearly twice as many more) in January 2013 than were there when Barack Obama was sworn in as president in January 2009. Yes, there might be a glimmer of light in the distance; the war might eventually come to an end. But that light is still quite faint, and eventually looks to me like a very long time.
Obama Plan Makes Victory in Afghanistan a Reality
Bloomberg by Noah Feldman
So how can President Obama say the U.S. has achieved most of its goals in Afghanistan? The answer is hiding in plain sight: Obama is aiming, as he said in his Afghanistan speech, to “refocus on al-Qaeda” — that is, to redefine the struggle in Afghanistan not as a fight against the Taliban, but as a war against al-Qaeda.
