Fox News Poll Shows 64% of Americans Want Troops Out of Afghanistan by Summer

Edward Kenney Afghanistan Study Group

Fox News has a new poll covering President Obama’s approval rating on a number of different issues.   Included in this survey are three questions on the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, each with widely different results, exemplifying why the wording of a poll question matters.

Poll # 1 measures President Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan.  A poll seven months ago reported that the president’s approval of the war was close to an all time low with 43% approving of Afghan policy.  The most recent poll, however, suggests a sudden turnaround for the President with a whopping 57% now approving of the current war policy.

Poll # 2 asks whether the American public supports military action in Afghanistan.  Here the results have been remarkably stable in favor of the troops.  In 2009 64% said they support the military in Afghanistan, in 2010 and 2011 support has held steady at 62%.

Finally poll # 3 asks whether the U.S. should withdraw troops.  A quarter of those surveyed advocated an immediate withdrawal.  Another 39% advocated sticking to Obama’s announced withdrawal deadlines.   Together 64% of those surveyed favor withdrawal.

So to sum up, the public (always) supports military action, and increasingly likes the President’s war policy, particularly the part about ending military action.

Fortunately, two of these polls are likely influenced by outside events or poor wording.  Only one of these polls (see if you can guess which one) accurately describes public opinion.

Obama’s strong Afghan approval rating (poll # 1) likely reflects the death of Osama bin Laden.  Indeed, this result is mirrored in virtually every post bin Laden poll on the Afghan war.

For Poll # 2 the problem is how the survey question is worded.  Americans are notoriously reluctant to come out against the troops, so it’s hardly surprising that a poll which includes the words “support” and “military”, elicits a steady positive response.  We should be especially skeptical over the poll’s seemingly steady numbers across multiple years.  Is American public opinion on such a volatile issue really that stable?

The poll that probably best reflects public opinion on the war is poll # 3 which asks about a specific policy proposal.  Here the result is unambiguous:  By a wide margin Americans want the troops home.

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