What the death of bin Laden Means for the War in Afghanistan
Will Keola Thomas – Afghanistan Study Group A Washington
The death of Osama bin Laden represents an enormous opportunity for President Obama to bring America’s commitment to Afghanistan back into alignment with its vital strategic interests there. The United States has two core interests in Afghanistan:
1.) preventing the country from becoming a base that could significantly enhance AQ’s ability to conduct attacks on the U.S.
2.) stabilizing the conflict in Afghanistan so that it does not threaten neighboring states
The lack of focus on these two core goals has resulted in America’s counter-productive entanglement in a decade-long, $120 billion-a-year war with no clearly defined exit strategy. And a reliance on military escalation has brought the U.S. further from achieving these strategic goals than ever before. But bin Laden’s death (and the manner in which he was finally brought to justice) points the way toward a sound and rational policy that brings America’s involvement in the region back into balance with its core interests.
The lessons:
1.) The large U.S. military footprint in Afghanistan wasn’t the key to eliminating bin Laden. The leader of al Qaeda was finally brought down by a well-run counter-terror operation involving intelligence, law enforcement, and special operations assets. According to the RAND Corporation, only 7% of terrorist groups are defeated through military means. The vast majority of terrorist groups have been dismantled either through negotiated settlements or through police action. The “surge” of 50,000 U.S. troops into Afghanistan was the wrong weapon to use in the effort to degrade al Qaeda’s ability to attack the United States and it has cost our country dearly. The counter-terror operation that eliminated bin Laden shows the way forward.
2.) The fact that bin Laden was found in a million dollar compound just a few miles from Pakistan’s premier military academy is just one more sign that the real threat to American interests emanates from that country and not Afghanistan. Again, the presence of 110,000 American troops in Afghanistan has had no strategic effect in either degrading the capabilities of Pakistan-based transnational terrorist groups or stabilizing the nuclear-armed Pakistani state.
The opportunities:
1.) The death of bin Laden shows that well-coordinated counter-terror operations work in advancing vital U.S. security interests. There are highly effective tools at hand for the U.S. to utilize in protecting the homeland and they don’t cost hundreds of billions of dollars or the lives of thousands of servicemembers.
2.) This is a tremendous victory for the United States and a testament to President Obama’s leadership. Obama should seize the opportunity that this victory represents to bring much needed focus to American engagement in the region. The American public is jubilant and their attention is focused on the success of a counter-terror approach. The political space has opened for President Obama to begin de-escalating the conflict in Afghanistan that has limited, rather than leveraged, America’s ability to protect itself from terrorist attacks.
The first step is to order a truly “significant” drawdown of 32,000 U.S. troops beginning in July. Another 35,000 troops should return home by July of 2012. This would leave 30,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan to train Afghan security forces, block a Taliban takeover and conduct operations against Al Qaeda cells leading up to the 2014 full transfer of security responsibilities to the Afghan government.
