The New COIN Doctrine: More Aid and Development to the Corrupt
Edward Kenney
Afghanistan Study Group Blogger
Orbis Operations, a consulting firm which operates in Afghanistan, has just published an eye-opening report on development in Afghanistan. The main conclusion of the report is that policymakers wrongly assume that development can “win the hearts and minds” without improvements in governance and security:
[Development] is only effective in areas where security and governance are present.
Few would argue this point, but the report’s author Dr Mark Moyar has an…unorthodox solution to this problem:
“In provinces where the governor is well connected to the population and capable of marshaling broad public support, we most likely should continue allowing the Tweeds and Corleones to use development aid to strengthen their patronage networks.”
To clarify, Dr Moyar is suggesting that the U.S. use aid and development resources to encourage corruption networks. Apparently, this is the best way to encourage better governance. Dr. Moyar concedes that this policy will “slow the development of a bureaucratic state” and may only be effective in ethnically homogenous districts with powerful governors, but he contends that patronage networks can provide stability at significantly less cost.
And who is Dr Moyar’s model governor for this program? It’s Gul Agha Shirzai, Governor of Nangarhar—the same Shirzai whose heavy handed policies in Kandahar are partly responsible for creation of the Taliban, and who later forced many ex-Taliban back into the insurgency. The same Shirzai who has been implicated in the drug trade and who corruptly controls a major pass into Pakistan.
The scary thing is this: Moyar may be right. Counter-Insurgency’s best hope of success may be to encourage powerful warlords like Shirzai and feed their corruption.
Maybe it’s time for a different approach.
