General Mattis on Afghan Timelines

General Mattis, the head of Central Command gave a speech in London on the prospects of the 2014 timeline.  In general, the U.S. spends too much time worried about timelines and troop levels, when our energy and resources would be better served trying to design a strategy to end the conflict.  Mattis’s statement illustrates the tradeoffs of timelines.  On the minus side, they potentially give the Taliban “heart to some degree”, they also limit flexibility and remove a potential bargaining chip for negotiations.  On the plus side Mattis said,

“Having a conditions-based withdrawal is also a way to refute the enemy line that somehow we are there to occupy this country forever. I think there is actually a strength to it.”

The main problem with U.S. timelines is that they are not credible.  Simply saying that we will end combat operations in 2014 is unbelievable unless the U.S. has a clear plan on how to get there.  Thus far, we continue to cling to the blind hope that the Afghan army will be able to take our place in three years.  If the Afghanistan National Army (ANA)  fails to live up to expectations, U.S. troops will undoubtedly be forced to stay.  What the U.S. needs is a strategy to achieve broad reconciliation as soon as possible.  Only then will the 2014 withdraw date have meaning.

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