Reality Check on “Sanctuaries” in Pakistan
Edward Kenney
Afghanistan Study Group Blogger
A New York Times report on Pakistani sanctuaries last Monday suggested that the presence of safe-havens has made it easier to target terrorists with drone attacks.
Pakistani Army operations in the other six of seven tribal areas near the border with Afghanistan have helped drive fighters from Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Haqqani network and other militant groups into North Waziristan, the one tribal area that Pakistan has not yet assaulted. With several hundred insurgents largely bottled up there, and with few worries about accidentally hitting Pakistani soldiers battling militants or civilians fleeing a combat zone, the Central Intelligence Agency’s drones have attacked targets in North Waziristan with increasing effectiveness…
It’s an interesting theory, but divorced from reality. The insurgency’s presence in North Waziristan is an indication that our counter-terrorism/counter-insurgency efforts have failed. Far from being bottled up in the Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the Haqqani Network and Quetta Shura (who are actually in Baluchistan) have successfully escalated the war in Southern Afghanistan and expanded the conflict to the North. Meanwhile Al Qaeda’s offshoots have gained strength in countries such as Yemen, Somalia and even the former Soviet Republics, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
The success of done attacks is uncertain. Drone attacks have dramatically increased in the last year, and there have been some notable successes, such as the killing of Al Qaeda operatives al Masri and Ab’d al Rahman. However, Bin Laden and his inner circle remain seemingly out of reach from the onslaught of attacks and increasing evidence suggests predator overuse may turn locals against the U.S.
As long as the U.S. remains bogged down in Afghanistan, al Qaeda will likely have the protection of the Haqqanis and other insurgent groups. Unless an acceptable peace deal can be reached to end the Afghan war, the incentive to protect Bin Laden and his cohorts will remain and the potential for high-yield counter-terror strikes will be limited.
