More on the Sangin Deal

In a recent post, Afghanistan Study Group Director Matt Hoh gave a relatively optimistic take on the recent peace deal in Sangin province and highlighted the importance of reaching these types of deals at the local level, which can begin to establish regional autonomy, security and governance.

It is important not to overstate this achievement.  First it is not clear that the Taliban were privy to this deal-making.  From the fragmentary news reports, it seems the marines made a deal with Alikozai village elders, a tribal group with a long history of independence from both the Taliban and the Kabul government.  Indeed some reports suggest that the Taliban has actively targeted this group precisely because of its “independence” from the Taliban.  Yesterday, an Alikozai leader was shot by the Taliban in Sangin Province—likely a reprisal for the deal made with the Americans.

Another potential problem Hoh writes is that:

similar settlements must occur at other political levels and the current political and governance system must be amended to incorporate the results of the deal and to sustain those results.

At the National level, it remains highly doubtful that province by province deal making will last.  Indeed, the U.S. should well heed the lessons of the British who achieved a similar peace deal in 2006 only to see a stronghold in the province fall to the Taliban in 2006.

The deal may prove to be an important test for regional governance, but it should not (yet) be construed as a game changer.

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