What Does the News in Pakistan Mean for the U.S.?
Afghanistan Study Group Member Paul Pillar argues that the “turmoil” in Pakistan is overblown. Pakistan views Afghanistan through the broader prism of regional politics. Their desire is to create a pro-Pakistani buffer against India. Domestic politics are irrelevant; furthermore the military is making all the critical decisions. According to Pillar:
“on the issues and policies that matter most to the United States, the Pakistani military—and in particular the army chief of staff, General Afshaq Kayani—makes the decisions.
Pillar is writing from the perspective of someone who believes (as we’ve previously suggested) that Pakistan’s strategic calculations relating to India will trump other factors. For analysts who are bullish on the prospects of American and Pakistani collaboration, political turmoil and assassinations are an unwelcome distraction for General Kayani.
If you believe the U.S. surge can succeed with Pakistani collaboration, the news out of Pakistan is grim. If you believe the surge cannot succeed because Pakistan will never truly collaborate with the U.S., this news is indeed irrelevant.
