Center for American Progress Policy Paper Part III: A Unified Strategic Vision
Edward Kenney
Afghanistan Study Group Blogger
The Center for American Progress (CAP) paper illustrates that among progressives there is broad agreement on how to adjust our Afghan policy. We all agree on the need promote government reforms, reconciliation with the Taliban, regional diplomacy and a reduced U.S. footprint. However, in presenting these recommendations there is often no unified strategic vision.
Let’s begin by stating the obvious: A negotiated settlement is the key to a U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan. Every other policy needs to work toward this goal. Thus increasing the likelihood that the Taliban negotiates a peace deal which preserves core U.S. interests.
Regional diplomacy is important not because talking to Afghan’s neighbors can resolve all our problems, but because countries like Pakistan and Iran are perfectly capable of disrupting the peace process. CAP recognizes this fact saying “Pakistan is clearly the biggest challenge and the most likely of Afghanistan’s neighbors to serve as a spoiler for a peace settlement.”
Reducing the U.S. military footprint will likewise ensure that peace talks go forward. A military drawdown might act as a confidence builder. Paul Pillar has suggested that distrust is sometimes the biggest obstacle to successful negotiations—reducing troops will proove to the Taliban that the U.S. is negotiating in good faith. A military drawdown also creates an incentive for Karzai and local leaders who benefit from U.S. largess to approach the negotiating table. Currently, “Afghan Leaders have few incentives to compromise and to exert leadership as long as a large foreign military presence remains”
Last, the question of government reform is potentially a key bargaining chip with which to entice Taliban leaders to the negotiating table—after all, political grievances are a main cause of the insurgency. The Council on Foreign Affairs had it right when it recommended that constitutional reforms along the lines the CAP suggest should be implemented in tandem with the reconciliation process. This policy both incentivizes reconciliation and increases the likelihood that a peace agreement lasts.
Policy recommendations, which encourage a negotiated political settlement is an important step to building a broader political coalition and eventually end the war.
