Claims of progress in Afghanistan non-substantive
Last week the Washington Post and the Washington Times published near identical articles claiming progress in the war in Afghanistan. Upon inspection these claims are seen to be non-substantive, specious, and fail to provide a reason to continue with our current strategy in Afghanistan. Most importantly, the articles fail to make the argument why and to what end the US should continue to spend over $100 billion a year in Afghanistan and commit 100,000 troops to the battle.
The first claim, that reintegration efforts are working, is untrue. According to the Afghan Peace and Reconciliation Committee during the first six months of the reintegration program launched last April, only 100 members of the Taliban switched sides. One hundred is an insignificant number for an organization estimated at over 30,000 members. In the words of a senior Afghan government official, the reintegration program is “almost dead.”
The second claim, that the Taliban are losing momentum, is equally lacking in fact. If the build up of US and NATO forces, a five-fold increase since 2005, including an increase alone of US forces of 50,000 in 18 months, were having a serious effect on the Taliban, then there should be a corresponding decrease in the Taliban’s effectiveness. However, the inverse is true, as proven by the consistent increase in casualties, IEDs, assassinations, etc., and the increased support for the Taliban by the southern Afghan population over the previous five years.
Claims of progress by US commanders in both Eastern and Southern Afghanistan continue to be proven untrue over time, with Marjah in Helmand Province being the most recent high profile example, cited by supporters of the current strategy, as an area where progress is being made. Over seven months after the largest operation of the nine year war was conducted in Marjah by over 15,000 US and Afghan troops, only 400 residents of a population of over 50,000 voted in last month’s parliamentary elections, over eight in ten residents view the Taliban as their government. Fire-fights and IED attacks are still daily occurrences.
When claims of progress go unmet, it is the lives of thousands of American and Afghan families that are forever changed with no benefit provided to either nation. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda, an enemy worth fighting, goes unscathed as its presence in Afghanistan is trivial. Thus, our operations in Afghanistan are inconsequential in keeping America safe from an attack by al-Qaeda.
The debate on America’s policy in Afghanistan must continue and it should not be dictated by misleading and overly optimistic reports. Debate must be based upon current conditions on the ground, as well as accurate trends, so that we have a policy that reflects the United Stated true national interests.
Matthew Hoh, Director
Afghanistan Study Group
